Australians will be heading to the polls for the next federal election sometime in the next three months—but exactly when? Well, that’s still up in the air.
There’s been plenty of speculation about a possible early election, especially now that the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Right now, a mid-April vote is looking like the most likely scenario.
So, what do we actually know about when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will call the election? Let’s break it down.
When Is the Latest Possible Date for the Election?
The Australian Constitution lays out some rules about when elections have to be held.
Terms in the House of Representatives last three years, and an election has to be held no later than 68 days after they expire. This means that, at the absolute latest, an election would need to be held by September 27, 2025.
But there’s a catch: half of the Senate’s terms expire on June 30, 2025, and elections for those seats have to be held before that.
Since House of Representatives and Senate elections are almost always held together, this means the latest possible election date is actually May 17, 2025.
That’s the deadline. But chances are, we’ll be voting much sooner.
So, When Will It Actually Happen?
The government isn’t giving anything away, but one date that keeps popping up is April 12.
Why? Well, if Albanese wants to wait until after the Western Australian state election on March 8 before calling the federal vote, but also avoid Easter and Anzac Day clashing with the campaign, April 12 is basically the only option.
There has to be at least 33 days between an election being called and the actual voting day, which makes April 12 the sweet spot.
In late January, when Albanese was asked about this date, he didn’t give much away. “Well, May 17 is when the election will be, or before... good try there, I’ll give you points for effort,” he said.
Another thing to consider is the federal budget, which is scheduled for March 25.
The government has posted two consecutive budget surpluses, but this time, it’s looking like the books will be back in the red. There’s speculation that Albanese might want to call the election before the budget is handed down, avoiding the need to present a deficit.
If that happens, April 12 makes sense.
But if he decides to hold off and deliver the budget first—possibly offering more cost-of-living relief for voters—the election could be pushed back to early- to mid-May.
What Do Interest Rates Have to Do With It?
Before the Reserve Bank cut interest rates on February 18, most political watchers thought the government was waiting for some good economic news before calling the election.
Well, now they’ve got it.
This was the first rate cut since 2020, and it gives Albanese something positive to campaign on after three years of rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.
Nine political editor Charles Croucher summed it up:
"Validation… that’s what the government will be saying today. That all the pain Australians have suffered, and all the pain the government has suffered tightening the belt, is now worth something."
If the Reserve Bank had signaled that more cuts were coming soon, the government might have been tempted to wait a bit longer for another boost before heading to the polls.
But RBA Governor Michele Bullock made it clear that another cut isn’t likely anytime soon. The next two decisions (April 1 and May 20) are expected to hold rates steady.
With that in mind, it makes sense for Albanese to strike while the iron is hot and call an early- to mid-April election.
What About a Double Dissolution Election?
A double dissolution election happens when both houses of Parliament are dissolved, meaning all Senate seats (instead of just half) go up for election.
Albanese fueled speculation about this last September, but at this point, it’s not happening.
The deadline to dissolve both houses was January 24, and it passed without action. Plus, the government managed to get a heap of legislation through the Senate in December, meaning there’s no trigger left for a double dissolution.
For context, double dissolutions are pretty rare. The last one was in 2016, and before that, there had only been six in Australian history.
The Bottom Line
The next federal election has to be held by May 17, 2025, but all signs are pointing to an April 12 vote.
Of course, the final call is up to Albanese, and he’s playing his cards close to his chest.
So, while we don’t have an official date yet, one thing’s for sure—we won’t be waiting much longer to find out.
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