It seems mortgage holders won’t get the early Christmas cheer they hoped for when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets next week. A survey of 40 economists by Finder suggests the RBA is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.35% during its final board meeting of the year on Tuesday.
So, when might relief arrive? Opinions vary. Almost half the experts think the first rate cut will come by May next year, while about a quarter predict it’ll take even longer.
A Tough Year, But Some Hope
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, acknowledged it’s been a rough year for Australians, particularly younger people juggling rent, mortgages, or raising kids.
“The cost-of-living crisis has been brutal,” he said. “But there’s hope. Most experts think we’ll see a rate cut in the first few months of 2024.”
Shane Oliver from AMP also predicts a May cut but believes the RBA could act sooner, especially with inflation easing and economic growth slowing. “There’s still a good chance of a February cut,” he suggested.
Advice for 2025
Experts also shared advice for tackling the new year’s financial challenges.
Richard Holden (University of New South Wales): “Pray.”
Peter Boehm (Pathfinder Consulting): “Save and focus on essentials. Skip the nice-to-haves and teach kids the value of saving.”
Matt Turner (GSC Finance Solutions): “If you’re looking to buy property, now’s the time. Once rates drop, buyer optimism will soar, and competition will heat up.”
It’s clear that 2025 could bring some relief, but patience and smart financial planning will be key until that first rate cut finally arrives.
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