Australia is gearing up for a challenging summer, with large areas facing an increased risk of bushfires, according to the latest outlook from the Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC).
The warning highlights higher fire risks across western Victoria, much of Western Australia’s southeastern coastline and central west, as well as the Northern Territory’s interior. In New South Wales, central northern and southern regions are flagged, along with South Australia’s lower coastal southeast and the Eyre Peninsula. Even greater Melbourne, the Mornington Peninsula, and parts of Victoria’s northeast are on alert.
The reasons behind this heightened risk are clear. Rainfall across southern Australia has been below average, leading to drier soil. On top of that, Australia experienced its third-highest mean temperatures on record for April to October since 1910. Victoria, in particular, recorded its hottest winter ever, with maximum temperatures averaging 14.34°C—1.31°C above the long-term average.
Victoria's emergency management commissioner, Rick Nugent, pointed out that the bushfire season is already underway. "We've had over 150 grass and scrub fires this season and two major fires," he said. Drier conditions and higher fuel loads make it easier for fires to ignite and spread.
Meteorologist Keris Arndt from the Bureau of Meteorology added that Victoria has seen an exceptionally warm and dry winter. While December might bring above-average rainfall, the state is still recovering from a very dry 18 months. "It’s going to take time to replenish catchments," Arndt noted, emphasizing that above-average temperatures are expected to continue into summer.
AFAC’s chief executive, Rob Webb, urged Australians to stay prepared. "Even in areas with normal bushfire risk, catastrophic fires can still occur," he warned. Communities are encouraged to create and discuss bushfire plans.
“We hope the rains come, but it makes sense to plan as if they don’t,” Webb said. Nugent echoed this, urging families to sit down and work out how they’ll respond to fires or other hazards like storms or flash flooding.
Preparation, vigilance, and community awareness are key as Australia faces what could be a long and dangerous summer.
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